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September 2017

[Sunday] – Hurricane Maria Could Bring Hazardous Weather to the U.S. Coast from NC to Mid-Atlantic States

   Posted by Levi at 3:54pm on September 24, 2017

Latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Maria




  • SAR Jim says:

    Levi, this morning’s sounding at Birmingham was showing PWAT readings in the 1.1″ region so we’ll have plenty of dry air to feed Maria. The ULL in the Gulf has been mostly stationary with a large area of thunderstorms just off the Panhandle. It just won’t move even 50 miles north, and we could use some rain. The last significant rainfall was from Irma, and it’s been above 90 every day from two days after Irma until now. With the TS wind field radius out to 260 miles, it’s hard to imagine won’t see some impacts in the Outer Banks, I just hope this drift to the west stops and the hard right comes as forecast.

    Regards, Jim

  • JF says:

    Was introduced to your site by a neighbor,I texted him later in the day letting him know I have spend and hour and a half roaming your site and I was not happy with him as I am now hooked on your site.
    No hype, just pure weather analysis and I like that, something you can not get from the news media as they over hype any situation, and I would just like the facts!

    My neighbor who is a science teacher is planning on using this site in class.

    Well done, I have passed this site onto a dozen or so people, keep up the good work!


  • Mel Frost - KD7DCR says:

    Welcome to the party, JF… I liken it to standing at the old FSS (Flight Service Station) counter, drinking Govt coffee and pouring over the MB/FL charts and SFC chart before filing the flight plan…some days you just go back home…

    SAR Jim… your call sign?… I’m on QRZ with an addy, for members.

    Looking at some of the model tracks…might still be “iffy” for another day/36 hr…could come closer to shore than current dart board score shows.. Keep watching and prep’ing.

    • SAR Jim says:

      Mel, AK4FP.

      I remember being on the first iteration of what would become Weather Underground in the late 80’s. It was run by the U of Mich, where Dr. Jeff happened to be a student at the time. It wasn’t public then, and you had to be affiliated with some governmental agency. It just so happened I was the official search and rescue coordinator for our sheriff’s department, and that got me in the door. In retrospect, it was horrible, waiting for one line of text to come up at a time on 4800 baud modem, OTOH, it was the only way outside the NWS to get access to real time weather, watches or warning. It did beat trying to copy the weather through the static on the NY VOLMET though. The idea that, not much more than 25 years later, we have a site like Levi’s is…well…it’s just unbelievable.

      Regards, Jim

  • Janet says:

    Oh you ignored little Lee. Can’t a little storm get any respect?

    • SAR Jim says:

      LOL. Maybe Levi knows the answer to these question. I haven’t been able to find them.

      1. What is the record for the number of times a storm has been declassified and then come back again? How about how many have ever come back as a cat 3?

      2. What’s record for the smallest cat 2 hurricane? I don’t recall one smaller than Little Lee.

      Regards, Jim

  • harrycane says:

    Hi Levi, I am hearing discussions about possible development under Cuba and drifting over Florida. Any substance to that?

    • Floridaloha says:

      I’m interested in that as well. Thanks, Levi.

    • SAR Jim says:

      I’m sure Levi will have an update if the blob over Cuba looks like it could be a problem. Just my uneducated guess, but the low that’s going to form will be very weak. It does have the possibility of becoming a tropical depression for a day or two as it moves up the east coast of Florida. It really can’t get very far north because of strong ridge over the northern half of the country so it will turn west, probably over north central Florida. It should then cross Florida and get out into the Gulf as an open wave. The only real issue for Florida is rain but this doesn’t look like an excessive rain producer. The ECMWF wants to keep it offshore. I’d like to see it get a little further north so we could get some rain in south Alabama. Unfortunately, my guess is the ECMWF is right and it will stay offshore until dissipating in the western Gulf.

      I’m sure Levi will correct whatever I’ve gotten wrong

      Regards, Jim

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