[Tuesday] – Watching for Tropical Development in the Southwestern Caribbean

   Posted by Levi at 7:29pm on October 3, 2017


20 comments

   

Comments

  • Kim says:

    I love your site, informative and factual

  • Rob says:

    Thank you, awesome as usual! MS Gulf Coast is watching this one for sure. 12 years post-Katrina, I still really dislike the words “anti-cyclone”…

    • Jacob says:

      I agree too us here in Southern Louisiana are watching this system very closely

      • SAR Jim says:

        South Alabama here. I’m just hoping for a nice, well behaved TD that gives us four or five inches of rain and doesn’t wreck anything. It hasn’t rained here in almost three weeks and temperatures have been in the 90’s almost every day. The plants are a=really showing the stress. Heck, I’m really showing the stress. :-)

        Regards, Jim

  • Cathy says:

    Yes indeed. LOVE your detailed information and explaining of everything. Thanks so much!!

  • James says:

    Great Video. Big fan of your content.

  • Greg goodman says:

    Levi excellent as always.watching this close in mobile.

  • Larry Ray says:

    A note of thanks to yon, Levi, from Gulfport,MS, and an old Katrina survivor. Your nicely flowing descriptions of all the variables involved in developing tropical systems as well as possible paths of fully formed hurricanes are the best, and most useful forecasting I have encountered anywhere. I am a retired broadcast journalist and often cringe as local weather reports are too often dramatically presented. Their limited information, often read right off an NHC update, too often instills fear or worry rather than providing a thoughtful, non-hyped meteorological overview. Your detailed, knowledgeable, illustrated “tidbits” are truly a breath of fresh air.
    Thank you.

    • SAR Jim says:

      Larry, so true. Levi has always reminded me of Walter Cronkite in his delivery. I’m sure hoping some TV station picks him up as their on-air meteorologist.

      Regards, Jim

  • Daniel says:

    Thank you so much Levi.
    Greetings from a meteorology enthusiast in Colombia, always looking forward to your updates.

  • Anonymous says:

    Thank you Levi, your thorough explanations of all the possibilities are very helpful.

  • Anonymous says:

    Thank you from belize

  • Lynda says:

    Love your website and daily updates. Your videos and explanations are so easy to understand and follow.

  • ossqss says:

    Batten down the hatches just in case Levi. Looks like you may get another in your neck of the woods.

    Nice job with the video details once again.

  • Lisa says:

    Thanks Levi, for making your analysis so understandable. I live just north of Baton Rouge, Louisiana and my son lives just north of Pensacola. I think one of us is probably going to get some of this system.

    If it goes straight north it looks like coastal Mississippi. Or it could do a Katrina and head just to the east of New Orleans. None of it looks good. I only hope it will move quickly and not get spun up into a major hurricane.

    Thanks for all you do. It’s so much better than reading the “doomcasters” on another popular weather site.

  • Eli Corp says:

    Levi – I have a question. How will the forward speed of the storm effect the strength of the system as it moves into the GOM? Typically with tropical systems moving over 25 mph, the circulation centers become much more elongated as the Low-Level center becomes displaced from the Mid-Level center. From what I am seeing in the models (GFS and EURO), this storm traverses 950 miles of the GOM in 24 hours – which is a forward speed of ~40 mph. That would tend to prevent a storm from being vertically stacked, correct? So, do you think this could prevent intensification of the storm once it reaches the Gulf of Mexico? Obviously waters are warm all along the path, and shear is light through the Caribbean, but what factors might inhibit development?

    • SAR Jim says:

      Eli, don’t use models as a standin for measuring forward speed of a system. For reason I don’t understand (but maybe Levi does) they often move a system too quickly from one major feature to another. Th\is seems particularly true for systems moving into or across the Gulf. The average speed of a hurricane not boomeranging out to sea is more like 15 mph. I’d be amazed to see such an elongated system move at more the 20 mph.

      Regards, Jim

      • Eli Corp says:

        Jim, I calculated incorrectly. I somehow confused kmph with mph (too early – not enough coffee) when I ran the distance calculator. The actual distance for the GFS is about 550 miles in 24 hours, not 950. So that averages out to 23mph, not 40mph.
        I just ran the calculation for what the NHC is predicting and they are showing about 350 miles in 24 hours or about 15mph in the GOM. So my guess is that the storm will be moving about 10-15mph as it enters the Gulf and speed up to 15-20mph as it approaches landfall somewhere. Do you concur? If that is the case, it probably won’t be as elongated. Wilma was moving at 20mph at FL landfall as a Cat3 – just to point out that fast forward speed doesn’t always mean a storm will be weak.

  • Doug says:

    Thanks so much from a two year listener in Niceville FL.

  • Daynna says:

    Thank you! Looking forward to the next tidbit – still very nervous after Harvey here in Houston. Lots of work still to do here & rain will delay the efforts!

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